A stealth model called Ox Alpha appeared on OpenRouter last week. It is already the platform's most-used programming model, processing 17.5 trillion tokens this week.
Nobody has confirmed who built Ox Alpha. Kalshi currently gives Z.ai an 89% probability.
If correct, the timing is interesting. Z.ai shares are roughly 60% below their recent high. The stock fell as Kimi K3 shifted attention toward Moonshot AI.
Z.ai has already proven itself through the GLM models. Ox Alpha would show that its development pace remains strong.
It is interesting to watch public AI lab valuations swing aggressively as newer models come out. This is the new norm. New models are arriving at a rapid pace. There will be many options for frontier-class intelligence, and Z.ai has a strong track record.
In the long run, value will accrue to all frontier labs. Demand for intelligence is large and increases as its cost declines. We are in the early days of this revolution. Strap in and prepare for the lead to keep changing hands.